Industry Voices: Consultants on the State of Denim
Along with the rest of the apparel industry, denim has recently faced some ups and downs due to economic fluctuations and changing consumer behavior. For a window into what is happening on the ground, Carved in Blue is catching up with industry figures—including executives at mills and consultants—to get their perspective.
Here, denim consultants Stefano Aldighieri, Miles Johnson and Andrew Olah weigh in on what they are seeing and the path ahead for the category.
Stefano Aldighieri, president and founder, Another Design Studio (United States)
Carved in Blue: From your perspective, how is the denim market currently performing? What are the main factors you see affecting the market?
Stefano: It is quite obvious that business has not been exactly booming for several months now; I do not think this is a denim-specific issue, though. When we came out of the Covid-19 tunnel, most retailers and brands rushed to place orders to make up for the lost time. Unfortunately, many overbooked, all requested super-fast deliveries, and this created a massive overload to the system. As soon as the actual retail numbers started to come through, it was obvious that many had overbought and were now sitting on high inventories, which made them stop all new purchases. Eventually, levels will come down, they will then panic, seeing empty shelves, and start the cycle again, until the pendulum of stop and go will stabilize.
Carved in Blue: How would you describe the level of consumer confidence compared to last year?
Stefano: I would say that here in the USA it is probably higher than last year. Europe is still dealing with an unsettling war at their doorsteps, so I would expect them to remain nervous for a longer time.
Carved in Blue: Is consumer interest in denim up, down or flat? And where do you see this going in the next year?
Stefano: The denim world is, in my opinion, divided between two major segments: core/utilitarian/workwear, which is pretty solid over time, and fashion, which tends to have its ups and downs. I think it is looking good for next year.
Carved in Blue: How does Gen Z’s consumer behavior around denim compare to millennials, Gen X and baby boomers? What does this mean for denim retail?
Stefano: I never like to box customers in segments defined by their age. I think there is so much overlapping that it makes little sense. In general, younger generations might be finally realizing—also due to their more limited spending capability—that overconsumption must end, and they are looking at alternatives, secondhand being the most interesting one. At the same time, however, they seem to be—despite what they claim—still quite obsessed with appearance and peer pressure and are still flocking to the usual fast-fashion brands. Real change will take a long time and much education, so I do not expect the status quo to shift anytime soon.
Carved in Blue: How well is the denim industry paying attention to and serving consumer wants and needs?
Stefano: Brands and retailers are still engaging in their greenwashing activity to try and persuade customers that they are now “doing the right thing.” The ones who are doing it, rather than just talk about it, will eventually reap the benefits.
Carved in Blue: What could the industry do to move more wallet share toward denim?
Stefano: First and foremost, focus on making better product. People are willing to spend more if the product is worth it. More durable, for example, makes a lot of sense, and it can be sold for more money. The myth that people will stop buying if prices are raised is nonsense. People stop buying when product is not attractive!
Miles Johnson (United Kingdom)
Carved in Blue: From your perspective, how is the denim market currently performing? What are the main factors you see affecting the market?
Miles: It seems to be running at less volume, and the cost of living and uncertainty in our lives disincentives our spending.
Carved in Blue: How would you describe the level of consumer confidence compared to last year?
Miles: There are many mixed messages across the industry with little unity from brands and mills. Prices range massively and quality is subjective.
Carved in Blue: Is consumer interest in denim up, down or flat? And where do you see this going in the next year?
Miles: I see it as flat, as there is still presence on the street. In my experience this is the time to take stock and build innovative product with clear compelling communication. Denim will be back in people’s minds, but something new needs to rise up amongst the price-driven basic products.
Carved in Blue: How does Gen Z’s consumer behavior around denim compare to millennials, Gen X and baby boomers? What does this mean for denim retail?
Miles: It’s appreciated to communicate visual transparency, showing manufacturing and the carbon footprint to reassure commitment to sustainability. When this is balanced with a fair price, a youth consumer has more connection and loyalty to brands.
Carved in Blue: How well is the denim industry paying attention to and serving consumer wants and needs?
Miles: This depends on which consumer base you are talking about.
Many would say that price is the most important need. This will likely mean that sustainability is not as important.
An increasing amount of informed consumers want progress in how the product is made.
Carved in Blue: What could the industry do to move more wallet share toward denim?
Miles: Identify what is “the best” and create aspiration. While the high street is awash with cheap stretchy skinny jeans, there will be other clothing that inspires and motivates higher spending, even in times of economic uncertainty.
Andrew Olah, CEO and partner, Olah Inc. (United States)
Carved in Blue: From your perspective, how is the denim market currently performing? What are the main factors you see affecting the market?
Andrew: I would say that the market is a little sloppy and not really buoyant as [we] have been accustomed [to], but there is a tiny sign of uptick. I think the cause was because of extraordinary inventories throughout the supply chain and a decrease in denim demand. Stores seem to be giving less space to jeans, and that says it all.
Carved in Blue: How would you describe the level of consumer confidence compared to last year?
Andrew: Consumers are traveling like crazy, planes are full, hotels booked, prices all up and demand is solid in restaurants—on that side of things, consumers are good.
Carved in Blue: Is consumer interest in denim up, down or flat? And where do you see this going in the next year?
Andrew: My sense is that there is less interest in clothes in general and denim in particular. Not really sure I see much change in 2024, although inventories of apparel will be reduced and that should brighten things up a bit.
Carved in Blue: How does Gen Z’s consumer behavior around denim compare to millennials, Gen X and baby boomers? What does this mean for denim retail?
Andrew: Not really sure our industry has produced new products that a Gen Z can attach to compared to the products that were available for millennials. Our industry is not really making anything new but is making things cheaper and more sustainably and perhaps more traceable, but these things are not visual attractions.
Carved in Blue: How well is the denim industry paying attention to and serving consumer wants and needs?
Andrew: The focus seems to be these last two years on price and not on creative innovation. We innovate on a sustainable basis but not really on creativity.
Carved in Blue: What could the industry do to move more wallet share toward denim?
Andrew: Make new and beautiful things a 16-year-old has never seen before and has to have.
Make new and beautiful things a 25-year-old has never seen before and has to have.
Make new and beautiful things a 40-year-old has never seen before and has to have.
If you continually sell something that looks like it was available five years ago, who wants it?